NOAA/Hurricane Don 6:20 p.m EDT July 22, 2023 in the Atlantic Ocean.
COLLEGE PARK, MD – NOAA scientists, Thursday, Aug. 10 predicted an above average Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters believe record warm ocean surface temperatures are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
The hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30.
NOAA’s update calls for 14-21 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or greater. As many as 11 of them could produce winds above 74 miles-per-hour. Two to five of them could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles-per-hour or greater. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms with as many as seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
NOAA hurricane update for 2023.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
There is a more than 95% chance that El Nino, which tends to lessen tropical storms during hurricane season, will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. But so far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
This year’s named storms.
Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service Ken Graham said new tools will enhance forecasting this year.
“New tools such as a new hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System and the expansion of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook to seven days are examples of our commitment to enhancing our forecasting capabilities and services,” he said.
NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well thought out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
Be prepared with a go kit.
Learn more about how to prepare at https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan.
